Modeling. Sounds exciting! Well I’m talking about computer modeling not the kind of modeling they do in Milan Italy! So it is actually quite boring. Every year scientist try to model what the next outbreak of flu strain will be, how many, where will it be concentrated, which stain will show up during flu season? All good questions. Even with the flu predictions the model is often wrong and we have years of data to work with. So how do we model a new strain? We scientifically gestimate. Yes, that is an educated guess. We take what limited data we have and run it thru one of the existing Scientific computer models and then guess what the outcome will be. That is why there are so many variations on the outcome. Since any new virus is brand new, we don’t have enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion. How long does it take for a person to spread the virus? How long before people start developing natural resistance and may only become carriers? How long does it live on a surface? How long to incubate? How is it transmitted? How many of the people have it, but get over it? Are there any drugs that slow the spread? So many other variables my head spins!
So let’s talk about the model that was used. They admitted that they used the data from Milan, Italy as the starting point. After all Milan was the largest outbreak after China. Well that is fine, but Milan did not practice social distancing at first. Milan has a large concentration of Chinese business people that were carriers. Milan admits that if a person died, they just classified it as the Corona Virus. They could have died from a car accident and may have been reported as death by Virus. So the original model was using faulty data. They always say garbage in, garbage out. Obviously the data is already complex so if they are feeding it inaccurate data, the results will also be inaccurate. As a scientist they should have been more certain of the data they are using. Money is always involved! If they can be the first company to come out with a model and predictions, then they gain credibility and other people will use them. It is common practice for them to release a model with almost no data, then back track and adjust the model as they have more data. So in this case the model has been adjusted several times, and yet so they don’t lose all credibility they have adjusted conservatively. To them it doesn’t matter that the first model was way off base. That is why alternative models need to be looked at so scientist get a better picture of what the projected spread will be like. So according to the latest model our state should double the total number of total deaths today. Yet, the other prediction is that the death day won’t happen for a week.
Weather forecasters can’t predict the weather 2 hours from now, yet the highest predicted death day is next week, which is only 70% of the doubling that is predicted to occur today. Oh excuse me if I confused you more. Let me try to put that in simple terms. Lets say you have $250. Toady the prediction is you will have $500. Double the amount. But the highest we can add to the $250 is only $175. So at the end of the day you should have $325, which is short of $500. However you are not allowed to increase the $175 until a week from now. No matter what you do, you cannot reach the $500 today. So either the math model is wrong, or the predictions are wrong. In this case the model they used is flawed on both sides. That is why we are seeing all kinds of numbers all over the board and why other prediction models have less people with the virus, and less deaths. Take the weather for example. Can they reliably predict the weather 2 hours from now? Or two days from now? How about 2 weeks from now? They have been predicting the weather for decades, you think they would have enough data to do it accurately. Since the Corona Virus is a newly released Virus, even though it has been in the making for at
least 10 years, we have no accurate data. There are too many variables and too many unknowns to come up with a good prediction of the future. Did China release what they did to the Virus? Oh wait if they release the scientific data of how the Virus was created, then they admit it was a bio-engineered weapon. China doesn’t want to admit they created and released a bio-engineered weapon on the world.
A pandemic is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region. But to coin a word, what is a PLAN demic? Maybe something that is planned out, even though the results are unpredictable. So scientist around the world are still reverse engineering exactly how the Virus operates, what it is it made of, and how it is formed. Scientific computer modeling is more of an art then a science simply because it is hard to get enough accurate data to plug into the mode, especially at the start. I can only hope that since the Federal Virus team has received multiple models that they take a look at the other ones. The other problem is that since no model is guaranteed correct if you look at too many models you end up more confused than before.
Someone asked how do I know that the Virus came out in China in October of 2019? Great question. Official first case in China was Nov 17, 2019. We know that it takes up to 14 days to incubate, which puts us at the beginning of Nov 2019. We also know that not everyone exposed to the Corona Virus gets sick. So there could be many exposed before the first case shows up. That puts the release/exposure sometime in October of Early November 2019. The Chinese didn’t release the information until the end of Dec 2019. So at 8 to 10 weeks went by before they told the world, and maybe up to 500,000 people were allowed to leave China before they said anything.
So here is a bit of unconfirmed news that should it be confirmed should bring joy to many people. I don’t usually report unconfirmed news, but I’ll always try to tell you that it is unconfirmed. Over 600 children were rescued from a tunnel in NYC. According to unconfirmed reports these children were in poor health. As the story is confirmed, I will give you more details. There are missing children and people all over the world, pray for them.
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Have you heard enough about the Virus? I decided that although the Corona Virus is important, you might want to hear something else. Since the MSM has refused to talk about this for the last 8 months either they don’t know, or don’t understand the connection. To them it is not news. To us it is some of the most exciting news that could be happening. No not the war part, but what God could be doing.
What is going on in Syria
Is it possible that God is setting up things that take place as predicted in prophecy?
Let me begin by saying that President Donald trump never gave the green light for Turkey to invade Syria.
Turkey has wanted to invade Syria for many years in the last two years they had threatened to invade Syria 23 times that’s once a month.
Turkey along with 30 other nations is a part of NATO
Turkey being a very bad actor has decided on its own to invade Syria
Syria is a sovereign nation; this is a declaration of War
Turkey has also requested that it’s NATO partners help invade Syria.
Why would NATO want to get involved in a war that was solely started by Turkey? I hope and pray they are wise and stay out of Syria. So far NATO has said NO.
Who is working with Turkey to invade Syria?
Several meetings have taken place between Russia, Iran and Turkey all about Syria. However Syria was not invited to the meetings. Is that like 2 bosses deciding your fate and not allowing you any input?
Russia can’t defend Syria because they would be attacking Turkey a NATO Ally , which includes the United States. Russia doesn’t want to start a war with the USA.
Iran as 80,000 troops in this area they could defend Syria but they also don’t want to start a war with NATO and United States
Surprise Syria decided to defend its own nation and started fighting Turkey. I’m certain that the 2 other countries who have troops in Syria did not expect Syria to defend it’s own boarders.
Do you really believe that by withdrawing 50 people from a country it would allow a war to start? As I mentioned earlier Turkey has wanted this war and prepared for it for very long time with drawing 50 people from Syria was not enough to cause this war to start. Turkey did it all on their own.
Why is this 20+ mile wide stretch of land so important?
Iran already has a passageway across Northern Iraq. Iran wants a land passage all the way to the Mediterranean sea. They do not have a passageway across Northern Syria. However, if they get a passageway across northern Syria they have a land route from Iran to the Mediterranean sea including several sea ports. A shortcut for oil delivery and other goods.
Turkey can’t allow Iran to transit across Turkey as long as they are part of NATO
However if Turkey controls the 20+ mile wide strip of Northern Syria Turkey can now allow passage for Iran. So turkey expands it’s boarders, eventually Turkey want’s to restore the Ottoman empire. Iran gets a land route all the way to the Mediterranean sea. What does Russia get?
Can God use world leaders it execute his plan?
In 586 BC God used the Babylonian King to carry the Jewish people into exile. The Israelites were forced into captivity because of their disobedience to God’s command.
In 1917 Great Britain was key in signing the Balfour declaration. This made public the British support of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
In 1967 God used the 6 day war between Israel and Arab states of Egypt, Syria and Jordan to return parts of Jerusalem back to Israel hands. After the 6 day war Arab leaders signed a resolution that promised “no peace, no recognition and no negotiation” with Israel. So the unrest continues.
In 1973 President Nixon stepped in and aided Israel and saved the Jewish State.
In 2017 President Trump declared Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Up until this time, no major nation had declared this. Yet this step was required in order to continue the fulfillment of prophecy.
These are only a few examples of how God uses nations, kings, world rulers to change the course of history and fulfill his plan.
What does all this have to do with Syria?
God says that they will march on Israel from the North. Most likely from Russia. So what major country is between Russia and Israel? Turkey. Yes, Syria is also in between, but Syria and Russia are already working together.
As long as Turkey is part of Nato, Russia can’t cross Turkey.
Russia has been negotiating with Turkey for many years. Russia wants Turkey as an ally, an energy customer, and the ability to transport easily across Turkey. The Bible talks about marching on Israel for their wealth. What wealth does Israel have, it has been a revived dessert for many years. In 2010 it was discovered that Israel has the second largest oil deposit in the world, only Saudi Arabia is sitting on a larger quantity. It was also discovered that Israel is sitting on a very large natural gas reserve. Yes, Russia was first in line to offer to help drill for these precious natural resources. That makes Israel a very rich country.
When God talks about Israel was He talking about Old Testament Israel or Israel of today?
There is no exact answer but God promised Abraham the land from the Turkish border on the North, to about Iraq on the East, to the mountains of Saudi Arabia on the south, and to the Suez canal on the west. That area encompasses all of Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and part of the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt.
Yes, Syria was part of the Old Testament Jewish land. Although the Jewish people were removed from the land, God still promised it to them.
So at some point based on the promise to Abraham, one theory is that the land could return to Israel. It is doubtful that this could happen peacefully, but more likely with war, or several wars.
God tells us that there will be several more wars before everything is finished. The order and timing of these wars only He knows. Ps 83, Ez 38, Ez 39, Revelation
Speaking of wars, there has been great turmoil in Syria, yet no one is talking about the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Another two countries that have hated each other for a very long time.
God says there will be wars and rumors of wars. Do not let your hearts be troubled I have overcome the world.
With all the rumors of wars, your heart can be at peace. You can know that you have eternal life in Heaven with God. God freely gives this gift. Admit that you have sinned and done wrong, accept Jesus Christ as you Saviour who forgave all your sins and paid the price on the cross. Finally accept Jesus Christ as Lord of your life.
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In our previous broadcast we talked about the snakes, the river turning to blood. The leader of the people again went to the evil ruler and told him “Release my people so they can worship me. If you refuse to release them, I’m warning you, I’ll hit the whole country with frogs. The Nile will swarm with frogs—they’ll come up into your houses, into your bedrooms and into your beds, into your servants’ quarters, among the people, into your ovens and pots and pans. They’ll be all over you, all over everyone—frogs everywhere, on and in everything!’”
The evil ruler refused and there were frogs everywhere! Finally the evil ruler said “Pray to GOD to rid us of these frogs. I’ll release the people so that they can make their sacrifices and worship GOD.”
The evil ruler was asked when he wanted the frogs gone. He replied tomorrow. So the leaders of the people prayed to God and the next day the frogs were gone. After the frogs were gone although there were dead frogs everywhere, the evil ruler changed his mind and would not let the people go. Very typical of evil people they want God to intervene in a disaster or crisis, but then they change their mind.
So you have the choice to be like the evil ruler in this Corona Virus crisis and believe God for a minute, or you can choose to believe and trust God for the rest of your life and throughout eternity. I chose peace and eternal life in heaven, what are you choosing.
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